The 2016 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.
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   Moran: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Wiesner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Senator Jerry Moran won re-election to a second term in office.
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Jerry Moran, incumbent senator[1]
- D.J. Smith, former Osawatomie city councilwoman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[2]
Declined
- Tim Huelskamp, U.S. Representative[1][3]
- Mike Pompeo, U.S. Representative[4]
- Todd Tiahrt, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[5][6]
- Milton Wolf, radiologist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[7][5][8][9]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jerry Moran |
Dennis Pyle |
Milton Wolf |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Moran)[10] | February 28 – March 3, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.38% | 73% | 9% | — | 18% |
| 70% | — | 18% | 12% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jerry Moran (Incumbent) | 230,907 | 79.09% | |
| Republican | D. J. Smith | 61,056 | 20.91% | |
| Total votes | 291,963 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
Declined
- Carl Brewer, former mayor of Wichita[5]
- Paul Davis, former minority leader of the Kansas House of Representatives and nominee for Governor of Kansas in 2014[5]
- Jill Docking, businesswoman, former member of the Kansas Board of Regents, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014[14]
- Dan Glickman, former U.S. Representative and former United States Secretary of Agriculture[14]
- Greg Orman, businessman and independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[5]
- Joe Reardon, former mayor of Kansas City and Wyandotte County[5]
- Kathleen Sebelius, former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services and former governor of Kansas[15][16]
- Jim Slattery, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2008[5][14]
- Margie Wakefield, attorney and nominee for Kansas's 2nd congressional district in 2014[5]
Results
Wiesner
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Singh-Bey
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patrick Wiesner | 59,522 | 62.94% | |
| Democratic | Monique Singh-Bey | 35,042 | 37.06% | |
| Total votes | 94,564 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Robert Garrard | 100.00% | ||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
Independent
Candidates
Declined
- Greg Orman, businessman and Independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[5]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Safe R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[19] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[20] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[21] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jerry Moran (R) |
Patrick Wiesner (D) |
Robert Garrard (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[22] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,311 | ± 4.6% | 59% | 37% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[23] | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 1,139 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 38% | — | 4% |
| Fort Hays State University[24] | November 1–3, 2016 | 313 | ± 3.5% | 77% | 13% | 10% | 0% |
| SurveyMonkey[25] | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 1,162 | ± 4.6% | 58% | 38% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[26] | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 1,123 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 38% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[27] | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 1,164 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 38% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[28] | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,273 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 39% | — | 5% |
| KSN News/SurveyUSA[29] | October 26–30, 2016 | 596 | ± 4.1% | 55% | 31% | 6% | 8% |
| KSN News/SurveyUSA[30] | October 11–15, 2016 | 549 | ± 4.2% | 56% | 31% | 5% | 8% |
| KSN News/SurveyUSA[31] | September 6–11, 2016 | 565 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 34% | 6% | 11% |
| KSN News/SurveyUSA[32] | August 3–7, 2016 | 566 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 32% | 6% | 10% |
| KSN News/SurveyUSA[33] | July 8–11, 2016 | 537 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 33% | — | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jerry Moran (R) |
Kathleen Sebelius (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[34] | September 11–14, 2014 | 1,328 | ± 2.7% | 52% | 37% | 11% |
Hypothetical polling
with Monique Singh-Bey
with Kathleen Sebelius
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jerry Moran (incumbent) | 732,376 | 62.18% | −7.91% | |
| Democratic | Patrick Wiesner | 379,740 | 32.24% | +5.86% | |
| Libertarian | Robert D. Garrard | 65,760 | 5.58% | +3.44% | |
| Independent | DJ Smith (write-in) | 46 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,177,922 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By congressional district
Moran won all 4 congressional districts.[36]
| District | Moran | Wiesner | Garrard | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 76% | 19% | 5% | Roger Marshall |
| 2nd | 59% | 36% | 5% | Lynn Jenkins |
| 3rd | 53% | 42% | 6% | Kevin Yoder |
| 4th | 64% | 30% | 6% | Mike Pompeo |
References
External links
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