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The 2022 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Murray had won re-election to a fifth term in 2016 with 59% of the vote.[1]
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  Murray: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Smiley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||
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Because Washington has a blanket primary system, parties did not nominate their own candidates to run in the general election. Instead, every candidate appeared on the same ballot, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two candidates in the August 2 nonpartisan blanket primary then advanced to the general election. Murray received 52.2% of the primary vote and advanced to face Republican Tiffany Smiley.[2]
Although Washington has been a reliably blue state for over 30 years, many polls showed that Murray only had a narrow lead over Smiley, and some polls had Smiley within the margin of error. A couple of late polls had the two candidates tied; such polls caused most pundits to downgrade their forecast from "safe Democratic" to "likely Democratic", and Republicans believed that Smiley had a chance of pulling off an upset.[3] Despite the predictions of a close race, Murray defeated Smiley and won re-election to a sixth term by a 14.5-point margin. Although this was a significantly larger margin of victory for Murray than what was expected, it was fairly consistent with Washington's partisan lean.[4] Smiley conceded the following day. Despite her loss, she made significant gains in several counties, particularly in the Southwestern and Eastern parts of the state.[5]
Following the election, Murray was elected president pro tempore for the 118th Congress, becoming the first woman to hold the role.[6]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patty Murray (incumbent) | 1,002,811 | 52.22% | |
| Republican | Tiffany Smiley | 646,917 | 33.69% | |
| Trump Republican | Leon Lawson | 59,134 | 3.08% | |
| Republican | John Guenther | 55,426 | 2.89% | |
| Democratic | Ravin Pierre | 22,172 | 1.15% | |
| JFK Republican | Dave Saulibio | 19,341 | 1.01% | |
| Independent | Naz Paul | 18,858 | 0.98% | |
| Republican | Bill Hirt | 15,276 | 0.80% | |
| Democratic | Mohammad Hassan Said | 13,995 | 0.73% | |
| Socialist Workers | Henry Clay Dennison | 13,901 | 0.72% | |
| Democratic | Dr Pano Churchill | 11,859 | 0.62% | |
| Democratic | Bryan Solstin | 9,627 | 0.50% | |
| Independent | Charlie (Chuck) Jackson | 8,604 | 0.45% | |
| Independent | Jon Butler | 5,413 | 0.28% | |
| Independent | Thor Amundson | 5,133 | 0.27% | |
| No party preference | Martin D. Hash | 4,725 | 0.25% | |
| No party preference | Dan Phan Doan | 3,049 | 0.16% | |
| Democratic | Sam Cusmir | 2,688 | 0.14% | |
| Write-in | 1,511 | 0.08% | ||
| Total votes | 1,920,440 | 100.0% | ||
Two debates were held, the first on October 23 at Gonzaga University.[40] The second was town hall-style forum on October 30 in the KIRO-TV studio in Seattle.[41]
Murray's campaign declined an invitation to a scheduled debate on October 25 at Seattle University.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[42] | Likely D | October 18, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[43] | Likely D | July 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[44] | Likely D | October 19, 2022 |
| Politico[45] | Lean D | November 3, 2022 |
| RCP[46] | Tossup | October 30, 2022 |
| Fox News[47] | Likely D | November 1, 2022 |
| DDHQ[48] | Likely D | September 12, 2022 |
| 538[49] | Likely D | October 19, 2022 |
| The Economist[50] | Likely D | September 7, 2022 |
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Patty Murray (D) |
Tiffany Smiley (R) |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | October 14 – October 31, 2022 | November 3, 2022 | 49.3% | 46.3% | 4.4% | Murray +3.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight | May 25, 2021 – November 8, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 49.6% | 44.9% | 6.5% | Murray +4.7 |
| 270ToWin | October 21 – November 1, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 49.5% | 44.5% | 6.0% | Murray +4.3 |
| Average | 49.5% | 45.2% | 5.3% | Murray +4.3 | ||
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
Tiffany Smiley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information Group (R)[A] | November 3–5, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[B] | October 31, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,207 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 48% | – | 2% |
| Triton Polling & Research[C] | October 26–27, 2022 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 45% | – | 4% |
| Moore Information Group (R)[A] | October 20–22, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
| KAConsulting (R)[D] | October 20–22, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 42% | 4%[c] | 6% |
| co/efficient (R) | October 19–20, 2022 | 1,181 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[E] | October 19–20, 2022 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
| SurveyUSA | October 14–19, 2022 | 589 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| Civiqs | October 15–18, 2022 | 698 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 55% | 41% | 3%[d] | 2% |
| Emerson College | September 29 – October 1, 2022 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 42% | – | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | September 27–28, 2022 | 770 (V) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 40% | – | 8% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[F] | September 20–27, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 5%[e] | 6% |
| Strategies 360 | September 22–25, 2022 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 36% | – | 14% |
| 370 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 52% | 40% | – | 8% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 21–24, 2022 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 47% | – | 5% |
| Elway Research | September 12–15, 2022 | 403 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | – | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | September 6–7, 2022 | 620 (V) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
| Moore Information Group (R)[A] | September 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 30 – September 1, 2022 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | August 15–17, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| Elway Research | July 7–11, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 53% | 33% | – | 15% |
| SurveyUSA | July 6–10, 2022 | 596 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 51% | 33% | – | 16% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[G] | June 14–19, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | – | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[E] | June 1–2, 2022 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 40% | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[E] | February 17–18, 2022 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 41% | – | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[E] | November 10–11, 2021 | 909 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 37% | – | 13% |
| SurveyUSA | October 25–28, 2021 | 542 (RV) | ± 5.2% | 49% | 31% | – | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[E] | May 25–26, 2021 | 992 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 53% | 37% | – | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Research | December 26–28, 2021 | 400 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | August 15–17, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patty Murray (incumbent) | 1,741,827 | 57.15% | −1.68% | |
| Republican | Tiffany Smiley | 1,299,322 | 42.63% | +1.77% | |
| Write-in | 6,751 | 0.22% | -0.09% | ||
| Total votes | 3,047,900 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
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Murray won 7 of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining 3 going to Smiley, including one that elected a Democrat.[64]
| District | Murray | Smiley | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 62% | 37% | Suzan DelBene |
| 2nd | 59% | 41% | Rick Larsen |
| 3rd | 46% | 54% | Jaime Herrera Beutler (117th Congress) |
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (118th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 34% | 66% | Dan Newhouse |
| 5th | 42% | 58% | Cathy McMorris Rodgers |
| 6th | 57% | 43% | Derek Kilmer |
| 7th | 87% | 13% | Pramila Jayapal |
| 8th | 51% | 49% | Kim Schrier |
| 9th | 71% | 29% | Adam Smith |
| 10th | 57% | 43% | Marilyn Strickland |
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