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/Archive 1 contains discussions pertinent to the old version (last revised 20 June 2012) prior to restructuring.
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We have left hanging an issue raised by Elriana (above, 02:44, 15 Feb.) about the "Difficulty or impossibility" section, that "it does not make clear to an uninitiated reader *why* predicting earthquakes is thought by some to be impossible.
" As I noted then, that section has been seriously hacked. In its current recent form it makes a bald assertion that "Earthquake prediction may be intrinsically impossible
", makes reference to two theories without explaining what they mean, and then concludes: "However, these theories and their implication that earthquake prediction is intrinsically impossible have been disputed.
" I believe the effect of this on most readers is that their eyes glaze over, and they move one without the slightest understanding.
I propose restoration of the "Difficulty or impossibility" section to its previous location (following the notable predictions) and extent, more or less as seen in this verision (Aug. 2014).
In its previous incarnation this section came after the notable quakes section, so that instead of lecturing to the reader that prediction of quakes is impossible, the reader is first shown that the record of earthquake prediction is disappointing. This section then addressed why that is the case, mentioning both that prediction may be impossible, or merely "fiendishly difficult". Although the latter is alluded to in the section title, in the current recent version it is not even mentioned, showing the glaring inadequacy of the present version.
Whether earthquake prediction is even possible is the most significant aspect of this topic. It warrants adequate treatment, and is a fitting conclusion to the article. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 21:06, 22 April 2017 (UTC)
WP is not supposed to be repository for graduate students' theses. It would be nice if the average interested person could simply read this and understand the main points. BeenAroundAWhile (talk) 03:31, 30 November 2017 (UTC)
@BeenAroundAWhile: Brain bender??? Graduate student theses? Are you saying that "the average interested person
" can not "simply read this and understand the main points
"? Where the hell are you coming from? Well, perhaps from Talk:Richter_magnitude_scale#Recent_copy-edits, where you said: "Just try to make it simple enough for a layperson to understand ....
" That is where you made a number of questionable edits. (Which I explained to you, and then reverted.)
Same thing here. On the 30th you made thirteen edits to this article. Four or five are rather trivial, hardly worth troubling about. But several of your edits are quite troubling. Let's examine them. (Your edit summary in parentheses.)
> the next strong earthquake to occur in a region.
> earthquake forecasting, which
.can be defined as the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake hazard
> Prediction can be
further distinguished from earthquake warning systems, which upon detection of an earthquake, provide a real-time warning of seconds to neighboring regions that might be affected.
> provide a warning
of seconds to regions that might be affected.
> was had been no valid short term prediction.
there was[emphasis added]
no official short-term prediction". For all that you might disagree with Wang et al.'s sense of tense I thnk we should stick with the source.
> In southern California about 6% of M≥3.0[clarification needed] earthquakes are "followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km."
> In central Italy 9.5% of M≥3.0 earthquakes are followed by a larger event within 48 hours and 30 km.
> Added {{Confusing|reason=the article is replete with jargon comprehensible only to an expert}}
everybody can understand" the use of "M", "≥", and "magnitude". (Which I grant, as just one child, or one idiot, is sufficient to negate "everybody". So what?) But these are not jargon, and are in no way "
comprehensible only to an expert"; they are comprehensible to many whose only expertise comes from reading a newspaper. As Dawnseeker has said: "
The reader needs to be responsible for being aware of the fundamentals." (I say: some competence is required.) Even so, you have shown no instances of anything, jargon or otherwise, "
comprehensible only to an expert", let alone that the article is "replete" with such instances.
For all of the above reasons (and because I am disinclined to take further time and trouble to save your trivial edits) I am going to revert the entirety of your edits, including the tag (on the basis it "did not belong when placed or
was added in error"). If you want to restore the tag, fine, but be prepared to show that "the article is replete with jargon comprehensible only to an expert
". ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:17, 2 December 2017 (UTC)
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tag to http://www.protezionecivile.it/cms/attach/ex_sum_finale_eng1.pdf{{dead link}}
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The largest earthquakes can now be detected via gravity waves. This gives relatively accurate determination just about instantly (speed of light) when measured at a suitable distance. Suitable distances far enough for the equipment to have some time to process the result before the normal earthquake arrives, but otherwise rather close. It's something like 1000 km. 97.104.70.92 (talk) 06:51, 27 January 2018 (UTC)
can now be detected via gravity waves" is little more than "has been", with various caveats. As Susan Hough said back in November: "
But much work remains before gravity signals can be considered a reliable tool in the crucial minutes after a big quake." ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 20:59, 27 January 2018 (UTC)
In Physics Today November 2010 issue the following review of Hough's book is published by Roger Musson: "My main reservation with the book is that it is rather US-centric, as even the author admits. ... Briefly mentioned is Greece's VAN project ... that classic case - it led to a great debate in the 1990s among seismologists about whether earthquakes could be predicted - deserved a more detailed exposition". The simple phrase "Most seismologists consider VAN to have been "resoundingly debunked" (Hough 2010b p=195)" included in the VAN section of the article is not justified and thus is to be removed.--EyeCont (talk) 13:23, 22 January 2020 (UTC)
an idea that is not broadly supported by scholarship in its field", and therefore "
must not be given undue weight in an article about a mainstream idea.". Your "polishing" of the VAN claims (here and also at VAN method) thus amounts to "unwarranted promotion of fringe theories", and I am considering whether all of your edits ought to be removed on that basis.
EyeCont: Your edits, here and at VAN method (and these are the totality of your editing to-date), show a definite tendency towards removing content critical of VAN, and adding content – usually from the small coterie of VAN supporters – that attempts to support ("polish") their results. This amounts to a taking of a side, a violation of WP:NPOV. As the "VAN method" is a fringe view rejected by mainstream science ("debunked", even), these edits also constitute unwarranted promotion of a fringe theory. For these reasons I am going to revert your recent edits.
Please note: where you see possible problems the preferred approach for addressing them is not removal of content, but tagging, with comments on the Talk page. ♦ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 23:55, 29 January 2020 (UTC)
I restored the version that updates the literature. Please be specific on justifying your changes, point by point.--EyeCont (talk) 10:31, 31 January 2020 (UTC)
Every edit has been justified.
J. Johnson acts under WP:OWN of the article and violates NPOV. FRINGE is his own point of view. See "Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics" part of "Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series", Springer 2011, edited by Harsh K. Gupta, in the Section "EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS AND PREDICTION" which ends as follows, just before its summary: "it has recently been shown that by analyzing time-series in a newly introduced time domain" natural time", the approach to the critical state can be clearly identified [Sarlis et al. 2008]. This way, they appear to have succeeded in shortening the lead-time of VAN prediction to only a few days [Uyeda and Kamogawa 2008]. This means, seismic data may play an amazing role in short term precursor when combined with SES data". In view of the above I am restoring the updated content together with adding the excerpt from "Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics".--EyeCont (talk) 14:02, 3 February 2020 (UTC)
resoundingly debunked"). The determination made here is not my – or anyone else's – "own point of view", it is the consensus of the editors, including input from some real, mainstream seismologists. On the other hand, your contributions show that you are a single-purpose editor (editing only this article and VAN method), whose edits either promote VAN, or remove content critical of VAN, distinctly demonstrating non-neutral violation of WP:NPOV.
seismic data may play an amazing role in short term precursor when combined with SES data", is rather amazing. Since 1981 "VAN" as been claiming an amazing role for SES data alone. That has still not come about. ♦ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 01:29, 4 February 2020 (UTC)
Regarding the specific points 1, 2, and 5, J.Johnson did not provide any concrete source to substantiate content critical of VAN, thus fully justifying my deletion of the corresponding WP text. As for point 4: Everyone can verify that at 06:30, 23 November 2017 at “VAN seismic electric signals” J.Johnson deleted “Natural Time” for “lack of notability” which has been inserted since 3 March 2017 after a consensus achieved among several editors (see Talk at 22:03, 3 March 2017 (UTC)). J.Johnson characterizes this VAN material –comprising several tens of papers in well known refereed journals- as “fringe” although it has been cited more than thousand times by researchers worldwide during the last 18 years, i.e., after 2002. To the contrary what seems to be “fringe” is the Criticism of VAN, because the limited circle of VAN critics comprising almost exclusively Geller and co-authors, although have published a lot of criticism during the 1990s, they did not write any paper with content critical of VAN after 2002, i.e., during the last 18 years (cf. ICEF report in 2011 mentions one only criticism of VAN in 1996). Thus, in view of the above, we restore the previous content with the updated literature, and do hope that this time J.Johnson will consent to mention also the work of VAN during the last two decades. Otherwise, it would be obviously unscientific and unfair to mention in the WP article solely the criticism of VAN during 1990s.--EyeCont (talk) 12:38, 5 February 2020 (UTC)
the limited circle of VAN critics comprising almost exclusively Geller and co-authors" is factually incorrect, and even asinine. Describing it as fringe is utter BULLSHIT. But we can hardly expect any better from a WP:SPA editor (with a possible COI) who is not here for the encyclopedia. ♦ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 23:44, 6 February 2020 (UTC)
@Mikenorton: I understand that you reverted as there was no consensus here to make these additions. By the same token, however, I revert again since J.Johnson had previously reverted it (see point 4) without any consensus just by claiming lack of notability and in addition without providing concrete sources as I asked for (regarding specific sources for the points 1, 2 and 5).
@J.Johnson: Concerning your unfair personal attacks on the VAN workers & natural time, I am not going to comment on. I would like, however, to urge strongly the WP editors and WP readers to have a look on the ISI Web of Science to visualize the international impact of VAN research & natural time and compare it with that of the VAN critics (mainly Geller et al, though Geller claims that “Geller is widely recognized as one of the world's leading seismologists” in his official site https://www.rjgeller.com/).--EyeCont (talk) 07:04, 11 February 2020 (UTC)
unfair personal attacks on the VAN workers & natural time" you are not commenting on (ha) don't exist. Likewise for "international impact": no one is using SES or "natural time domain" to predict earthquakes, and as far as I can see no one writes on these except for Varotsos, Skordas, Sarlis, and their co-authors. Who do keep churning out papers (with lots of cross-citations) full of mumbo-jumbo, but all their citations have little impact, and less notability.
mainly Geller et al." and "
almost exclusively Geller and co-authors" is, as I said before, factually incorrect. It is also curiously similar to a view held be a previous anonymous VAN supporter here, who was linked to the University of Athens (and thus to Varotsos, Skordas, and Sarlis). So I will point out to you: if are connected in any way with the Univ. of Athens, or Varotos, Sarlis, or Skordas, then you have a possible conflict of interest, which you are expected to declare.
As EyeCont has been too bashful to respond, I have proceed with some edits that address some of his points, as well as some other outstanding deficiencies. ♦ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 01:53, 24 February 2020 (UTC)
EyeCont: with your tagging yesterday of the two VAN related sections with {{verifiability}} (with no further explanation than a link to a comment of yours here a month ago), and also your edits yesterday to VAN method (here and here), it seems necessary to remind you of what I said just above: if are connected in any way with the Univ. of Athens, or Varotos, Sarlis, or Skordas, then you have a possible conflict of interest, which you are expected to declare. Note that COI editing is strongly discouraged, and may result in a block. (See WP:COI.)
Also, as a WP:SPA account with a demonstrated non-neutral viewpoint your edits here, and especially your repeated attempts to add the same material, are very suspect. As Mikenorton said on 5 Feb: there is no consensus here to make these additions.
When you add the verifiability tag you are expected specify what claims are disputed. You have not done so, only pointing to your comment above (@ 14:02) where you mention Sarlis et al. 2008 and Uyeda and Kamogawa 2008. (Are those the claims you dispute?) That lack, plus your edits at VAN method, suggest that you are not acting in good-faith.
For all of these reasons I am going rollback your recent edits. I strongly suggest that if have any bona fide edits – or better, suggestions – that you discuss them here first. ♦ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 00:54, 5 March 2020 (UTC)
At J.Johnson: My bona fide suggestion (following your own strong suggestion) is as follows by recalling the five points I explained in detail more than a month ago: Since a consensus had been achieved among several editors, published from March 3, 2017, until November 16, 2017, I now restore exactly this version, as edited by Jerry Russel (talk/contribs) at 22:36, 3 March 2017. In this version, I tag points 1 & 2 (as recommended by Mikenorton (talk) 13:50, 5 February 2020). In view of the fact that these two excerpts distort the content of VAN publications (since they have never been published by VAN) and should be deleted, I am tagging the two VAN related sections with {verifiability} and also your edits to VAN method. If you consent to the above, we can start bona fide discussion on each subsequent addition from either side until a new consensus will be again established.--EyeCont (talk) 12:08, 10 March 2020 (UTC)
A community consensus has been achieved back in 2017, indeed. The discussion can start from this point and beyond. ManosHacker talk 09:52, 11 March 2020 (UTC)
EyeCont's rollback wiped out some of the changes I made addressing the very points he complained of, and lost other improvements made by other editors. This needs attention, but unfortunately I am rather occupied of late (off-pedia as well as on), so someone else needs to take point on this. ♦ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:31, 18 March 2020 (UTC)
While it is useful to know it I am not sure it assists the article. ManosHacker talk 20:21, 25 March 2020 (UTC)
There are two excerpts tagged in the article regarding verifiability. A suggestion was made on February 3, 2020 at 14:02 which has not been properly addressed. These excerpts are:
I tagged the above two excerpts (as recommended by Mikenorton on February 5, 2020 at 13:50) and, in view of the fact that the above two excerpts distort the content of VAN publications (since they have never been published by VAN), I suggested that they should be deleted.--EyeCont (talk) 08:16, 23 April 2020 (UTC)
This is a literature update that corresponds to the following addition to the last but one paragraph of the section "VAN seismic electric signals" or to the second paragraph of the section "1983–1995: Greece (VAN)":
In 2013, the SES activities were found[Varotsos et al 2013] to be coincident with the minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity, which have been shown[Christopoulos et al 2020] to be statistically significant precursors by employing the event coincidence analysis.[Donges et al 2016]
The above cited papers are the following:
If no objection is expressed, I will update the article.--EyeCont (talk) 08:52, 23 April 2020 (UTC)
The following addition is suggested to be added to the fourth paragraph of the section "VAN seismic electric signals":
More recent work, by employing modern methods of statistical physics, i.e., detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), multifractal DFA and wavelet transform revealed that SES are clearly distinguished from signals produced by man made sources.[Varotsos, Sarlis and Skordas 2003a][Varotsos, Sarlis and Skordas 2003b]
If no objection is expressed, I will update the article.--EyeCont (talk) 09:24, 23 April 2020 (UTC)
The following source's content is suggested to be added to the third paragraph of the section: "1983–1995: Greece (VAN)":
On the other hand, the Section "EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS AND PREDICTION" of "Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics: part of "Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series" (Springer 2011) edited by Harsh K. Gupta, ends as follows (just before its summary): "it has recently been shown that by analyzing time-series in a newly introduced time domain "natural time", the approach to the critical state can be clearly identified [Sarlis et al. 2008]. This way, they appear to have succeeded in shortening the lead-time of VAN prediction to only a few days [Uyeda and Kamogawa 2008]. This means, seismic data may play an amazing role in short term precursor when combined with SES data".
The above contains the exact excerpt from the encyclopedia. I feel should be reproduced in the article, as it answers an open question.--EyeCont (talk) 10:07, 23 April 2020 (UTC)
In the section "2008: Greece (VAN)" the following phrase should be added:
A rebuttal to this complaint, which insisted on the accuracy of this prediction, was published on the same issue. [Uyeda S., Kamogawa M., EOS Trans. AGU 91,163 (2010)]
If no objection is expressed, I will update the article.--EyeCont (talk) 10:45, 23 April 2020 (UTC)
I haven't had time to look these through in detail, but I'm not sure that adding so many extra citations to the Van method in this article, with no other views expressed will lead to any sort of balanced article. My impression, and it has to stay as that for obvious reasons, is that the mainstream earthquake prediction/forecasting community are just ignoring the VAN method. What this article needs is views from uninterested third parties that show some sort of general acceptance of the method (or otherwise), so if you have some of those, they would be good to see. Mikenorton (talk) 08:57, 27 April 2020 (UTC)
I just came across "Seismic electric signals (SES) and earthquakes: A review of an updated VAN method and competing hypotheses for SES generation and earthquake triggering" by Daniel Helman (2020), which contains an analysis and critique of the VAN method. To quote from the conclusions:
The above VAN criticism by Helman mentioned by Mikenorton has been recently shown (https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/22/5/583/htm) that does not stand.--EyeCont (talk) 05:21, 4 June 2020 (UTC)
A section for politics regarding earthquake prediction is missing from the article.
ManosHacker talk 15:56, 30 April 2020 (UTC)
Is this citation acceptable? I think we should summarize this section. ManosHacker talk 20:58, 22 June 2020 (UTC)
I removed the paragraph cited with the above, More, this arxiv citation should be replaced by the one finally published. ManosHacker talk 00:48, 24 June 2020 (UTC)
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