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March is definitely coming in like a lamb in the tropics. 100 knot shear and incredible dry air - now's a good time for a tropical vacation! (Unless you're a storm chaser) CrazyC83 16:53, 28 February 2006 (UTC)
There is a mid-level low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico sitting over the Gulf loop current (which is still luke-warm). I don't know that it is going to do anything, but it in a place where it possibly can. In the summer, this system would be a prime candidate for tropical development. Right now, it maybe barely has a chance to develop. --EMS | Talk 15:26, 2 March 2006 (UTC)
is the gulf loop current warmer than usual? do low pressure systems usually look as impressive as this at this time of year? or is this normal?--HurricaneRo 23:21, 2 March 2006 (UTC)
The convection's weak but covering a larger area than ever now. It's really eating away at that dry air. --Coredesat 01:05, 3 March 2006 (UTC)
Wow! I am a little surprised. There seems to be a bit of a circulation, and the convection, though waning, is redeveloping on the east side. I can't believe I'm saying this but this needs to be watched. Hurricanehink 01:48, 3 March 2006 (UTC)
The system is now sheared and appears to be losing steam. --EMS | Talk 18:19, 3 March 2006 (UTC)
I went to the NHC site and they put a little more attention to it on the tropical weather discussion and said that it has developed a more curvature structure and at this rate a surface low could development they even mentioned development saying that global models arent forecasting any development at this time....so it must be pretty serious ... i am impressed by this system, it seems like june already --HurricaneRo 22:33, 3 March 2006 (UTC)
-HEY ...does anybody know if that low will cross over(into the gulf)the 1 on the coast of Mexico and if it does what do u guys think will happen??--HurricaneRo 00:49, 10 March 2006 (UTC)
hello! umm i have a question that low that is near the Carolinas..can it potnetially develop, i mean it has circulation and showers so im wondering?--HurricaneRo 00:08, 8 March 2006 (UTC)
Develop yes, but more likely into a rainy Nor'easter than a tropical cyclone...the only way it can develop into anything tropical is if it moves well southeast over the subtropical 21-23°C water. The water off the Carolinas is 16-19°C, far too cold for tropical activity. CrazyC83 23:05, 7 March 2006 (UTC)
The 7:05 3/7/06 tropical weather discussion describes this system as follows:
1005 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N724W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N .
So it seems that the NWS is not taking this system very seriously. --EMS | Talk 23:55, 7 March 2006 (UTC)
Oh ok i get it... thanks, It is so weird how close they look to hurricanes....they have circulation and showers around them--HurricaneRo 00:08, 8 March 2006 (UTC)
The low is now a serious Atlantic storm. Had it gone up the coast, it would have been a strong Nor'easter, but it didn't. There are now no signs of either tropical or subtropical development, and as the center has continued to shift east-northeastward it has remained over waters that are way too cool to support development. I say that it is time to close the book on this system. --EMS | Talk 15:40, 8 March 2006 (UTC)
The current SSTs indicate that there has been a cold water upwelling off of the Cape Verde Islands recently, and the SSTs are being eroded over a substantial area to the west of them. Let's just say that this very much bears watching. If it persists, it will literally be throwing cold water onto all of the forecasts of 2006 being another nasty hurricane season. (My current opinion is that this is a small-to-mediocre upwelling that will spread to the west and dissipate over time. It may inhibit cyclogenesis in the Carribean over the next few months, but that should be it. OTOH, in 1996 I watch a much stronger upwelling occur south of the Azores, which shut down that hurricane season and helped to suppress the 1997 season. So this is nothing to scoff at.) --EMS | Talk 16:12, 23 March 2006 (UTC)
This satellite shot and this oneseems to show a strong area of convection off the Yucatan. I am trying to identify and find out more on it. Shear seems very high though. Can't see it developing. CrazyC83 06:12, 24 March 2006 (UTC)
That is pretty impressive--HurricaneRo 02:24, 25 March 2006 (UTC)
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