2020 United States Senate election in Montana

Not to be confused with 2020 Montana Senate election.

The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent senator Steve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana governor Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary.^[2]

2020 United States Senate election in Montana

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
Turnout	81.33% [1]
Nominee Steve Daines Steve Bullock Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 333,174 272,463 Percentage 55.01% 44.99%
County results Precinct results Daines:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Bullock:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%      No data
U.S. senator before election Steve Daines Republican Elected U.S. Senator Steve Daines Republican

Originally, this seat was projected to be a safe Republican hold.^[3] However, Bullock entered the race on the last day to file, shifting the dynamics of the contest dramatically; many political pundits then considered it a competitive race and a potential pickup for Democrats.^[4] One poll showed Bullock leading by seven points.^[5] Democrats outspent Republicans $82 million to $63 million on this race; it was one of the most expensive Senate races in the 2020 cycle.^[6] On Election Day, Daines prevailed by a relatively comfortable 10% margin following a trend of Republican Senate candidates outperforming expectations.

Despite his loss, Bullock did outperform Biden, who lost Montana by a 16.4% margin.^[7] He also flipped two counties won by Donald Trump in the presidential contest — Lewis and Clark and Roosevelt.

This election marked the first time since 2000 where Montana voted for a Republican governor, president, and senator all on the same ballot. As the Green Party was removed from the ballot and both Libertarian nominees withdrew, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no third-party candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.^[8] This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican senator was re-elected to this seat.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Steve Daines, incumbent U.S. senator^[9]

Eliminated in primary

• John Driscoll, former Democratic Speaker of the Montana House of Representatives (1977–1979)^[10]
• Daniel Larson, hardware store manager^[9]

Endorsements

Steve Daines

Individuals

• Donald Trump Jr., son of President Donald Trump^[11]

Results

Results by county

  Daines

•   80–90%
•   90–100%

Republican primary results^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Steve Daines (incumbent)	192,942	88.02%
	Republican	John Driscoll	13,944	6.36%
	Republican	Daniel Larson	12,319	5.62%
Total votes			219,205	100.00%

Democratic primary

Following Steve Bullock's entry shortly before the March 9 filing deadline, several Democrats dropped from the race.^[2]

Candidates

Nominee

• Steve Bullock, incumbent governor of Montana and former candidate for president of the United States in 2020^[4][13][14]

Eliminated in primary

• John Mues, nuclear engineer and U.S. Navy veteran^[15]

Withdrawn

• Jack Ballard, former professor at Montana State University Billings (endorsed Bullock)^[16]
• Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena (endorsed Bullock)^[17]
• Mike Knoles, mathematician, physicist, and data analyst (endorsed Bullock)^[18] (remained on ballot)
• Cora Neumann, public health expert and founder of the Global First Ladies Alliance^[19] (endorsed Bullock)^[20]
• Josh Seckinger, fishing guide (endorsed Bullock)^[21]

Declined

• Michael Punke, writer and former U.S. ambassador to the World Trade Organization^[22][23]
• Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana^[24]
• Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018 (running for Montana's at-large congressional district)^[25]

Endorsements

Steve Bullock

Federal officials

• Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California (2017-2021), 2020 Democratic vice presidential nominee^[26]

Results

Results by county

  Bullock

•   80–90%
•   90–100%

Democratic primary results^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Steve Bullock	144,949	95.45%
	Democratic	John Mues	3,740	2.46%
	Democratic	Mike Knoles (withdrawn)	3,165	2.09%
Total votes			151,854	100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

After Susan Geise officially withdrew, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election.^[27][28] However, during a meeting to select a replacement candidate, a majority of party officials selected not to have a replacement candidate, with "none of the above" winning the most votes.^[29]

Withdrawn

• Eric Fulton, Republican candidate for District 65 of the Montana House of Representatives in 2014^[30]
• Susan Geise, Lewis and Clark County commissioner and former chair of the Montana Republican Party^[31][27][32]

Green Party

Main article: Green Party of Montana § 2020 election

Disqualified

• Wendie Fredrickson, former audit reviewer for Montana State Department of Public Health and Human Services^[10][33][34]

Eliminated in primary

• Dennis Daneke, retired college professor^[35][33]

Results

Results by county

  Fredrickson

  Daneke

  Tie

  No vote

Green primary results^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	Wendie Fredrickson	504	66.40%
	Green	Dennis Daneke	255	33.60%
Total votes			758	100.00%

General election

Debate

Host	Date & time	Link(s)	Participants
			Steve Daines (R)	Steve Bullock (D)
Montana Broadcasters Association	August 8, 2020 9:30pm MDT	[36]	Present	Present
Montana Television Network	October 10, 2020 5:47pm MDT	[37]	Present	Present

Predictions

Source	Rating	As of
The Cook Political Report[38]	Toss Up	October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[39]	Tossup	October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[40]	Lean R	November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[41]	Lean R	October 30, 2020
Politico[42]	Tossup	November 2, 2020
RCP[43]	Tossup	October 23, 2020
DDHQ[44]	Lean R	November 3, 2020
538[45]	Lean R	November 2, 2020
Economist[46]	Lean R	November 2, 2020

Additional general election endorsements

Steve Daines (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

• Nikki Haley, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018), 116th governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)^[47]
• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017-2021)^[48]

U.S. senators

• Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013-present)^[49]
• Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2003-present)^[50]
• Mitch McConnell, U.S. senator from Kentucky (1985-present) and Senate Majority Leader (2015-2021)^[51]
• Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida (2011-present)^[52]

Organizations

• Campaign for Working Families^[53]
• Club for Growth^[54]
• Crow Tribe of Montana^[55]
• FreedomWorks^[53]
• National Association of Home Builders^[54]
• National Right to Life Committee^[54]
• NRA Political Victory Fund^[56][57]
• Senate Conservatives Fund^[58]
• Susan B. Anthony List^[54]
• Tea Party Express^[54]

Steve Bullock (D)

Federal officials

• Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota (2007–present), candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination^[59]
• Jon Tester, U.S. senator from Montana (2007-2025), president of the Montana Senate (2005-2007)^[60]

Newspapers

• Billings Gazette^[61]
• Missoulian^[62]
• The Montana Standard^[63]

Organizations

• Center for Biological Diversity^[64]
• End Citizens United^[65]
• Human Rights Campaign^[66]
• Jewish Democratic Council of America^[67]
• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs^[68]
• League of Conservation Voters^[69]
• The Lincoln Project^[70]
• Montana State Council of Professional Fire Fighters^[71]
• NARAL Pro-Choice America^[72]
• National Organization for Women^[73]
• Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund^[74]
• Planned Parenthood^[75]

Unions

• Communications Workers of America^[76]
• Montana AFL-CIO^[77]
• Montana Federation of Public Employees^[78]
• National Education Association^[79]
• United Auto Workers^[80]

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Steve Bullock vs. Steve Daines
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Steve Bullock	Steve Daines	Other/Undecided[a]	Margin
Real Clear Politics[81]	October 5–24, 2020	October 30, 2020	46.4%	48.8%	4.8%	Daines + 2.4
270 to Win[82]	October 19, 2020	October 28, 2020	47.2%	48.0%	4.8%	Daines + 0.8

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Steve Daines (R)	Steve Bullock (D)	Other / Undecided
Change Research[83]	October 29 – November 2, 2020	920 (LV)	± 3.5%	50%	46%	3%[c]
Public Policy Polling (D)[84][A]	October 26–27, 2020	886 (LV)	± 3.3%	47%	48%	6%[d]
The Progress Campaign (D)[85]	October 25, 2020	– (V)[e]	–	48%	48%	–
Montana State University Billings[86]	October 19–24, 2020	546 (LV)	± 4.2%	47%	48%	5%[f]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[87]	October 18–20, 2020	758 (LV)	± 4.4%	49%	46%	6%[g]
Strategies 360[88]	October 15–20, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	47%	5%[f]
RMG Research[89]	October 15–18, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%[h]	47%	5%[i]
				47%[j]	48%	5%[i]
				50%[k]	45%	5%[i]
Public Policy Polling[90]	October 9–10, 2020	798 (V)	± 3.5%	48%	48%	4%[l]
Emerson College[91]	October 4–7, 2020	500 (LV)	± 3.7%	52%	43%	6%[m]
Data For Progress (D)[92]	September 30 – October 5, 2020	737 (LV)	± 3.6%	47%	48%	4%[n]
Montana State University Bozeman[93]	September 14 – October 2, 2020	1,609 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%	49%	4%[o]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[94]	September 14–16, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4.8%	45%	44%	11%[p]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[95][B]	August 30 – September 5, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	50%	47%	3%[q]
Emerson College[96]	July 31 – August 2, 2020	584 (LV)	± 4.0%	50%	44%	6%[m]
Spry Strategies (R)[97][C]	July 11–16, 2020	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	47%	44%	9%[r]
Civiqs/Daily Kos[98]	July 11–13, 2020	873 (RV)	± 4.2%	49%	47%	3%[s]
Public Policy Polling[99]	July 9–10, 2020	1,224 (V)	± 2.8%	44%	46%	10%[t]
University of Montana[100]	June 17–26, 2020	517 (RV)	± 4.3%	43%	47%	10%[u]
Montana State University Bozeman[101]	April 10–27, 2020	459 (LV)	± 4.6%	39%	46%	15%[v]
The Progress Campaign (D)[102]	April 14–21, 2020	712 (LV)	± 4.6%	46%	49%	5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[103][D]	March 12–13, 2020	903 (V)	± 3.3%	47%	47%	6%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Democratic candidates	Steve Daines (R)
University of Montana[104]	February 12–22, 2020	498 (LV)	± 4.4%	53%[w]	47%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Democratic candidates	Steve Daines (R)
University of Montana[105]	September 26 – October 3, 2019	303 (RV)	± 5.6%	36%[x]	64%

Hypothetical polling

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls. Steve Daines vs Steve Bullock, Wilmot Collins, Mike Knoles, Cora Neumann, and John Mues

Steve Daines vs Jack Ballard, Wilmot Collins, and John Mues

Results

United States Senate election in Montana, 2020^[106]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Steve Daines (incumbent)	333,174	55.01%	−2.78%
	Democratic	Steve Bullock	272,463	44.99%	+4.92%
Total votes			605,637	100.00%
	Republican hold

By county

By county

County[106] Steve Daines Republican Steve Bullock Democratic Margin Total votes # % # % # % Beaverhead 3,775 66.64 1,890 33.36 1,885 33.27 5,665 Big Horn 2,106 43.94 2,687 56.06 -581 -12.12 4,793 Blaine 1,343 42.84 1,792 57.16 -449 -14.32 3,135 Broadwater 3,107 75.60 1,003 24.40 2,104 51.19 4,110 Carbon 4,404 62.96 2,591 37.04 1,813 25.92 6,995 Carter 767 86.08 94 10.55 673 75.53 891 Cascade 22,312 55.73 17,727 44.27 4,585 11.45 40,039 Chouteau 1,813 60.59 1,179 39.40 634 21.19 2,992 Custer 3,995 68.17 1,865 31.83 2,130 36.35 5,860 Daniels 787 76.41 243 23.59 544 52.82 1,030 Dawson 3,634 75.35 1,189 24.65 2,445 50.70 4,823 Deer Lodge 1,921 39.35 2,961 60.65 -1,040 -21.30 4,882 Fallon 1,341 85.09 235 14.91 1,106 70.18 1,576 Fergus 4,746 72.63 1,788 27.36 2,958 45.27 6,534 Flathead 37,861 63.06 22,180 36.94 15,681 26.12 60,041 Gallatin 31,829 44.65 39,450 55.35 -7,621 -10.69 71,279 Garfield 736 90.98 73 9.02 663 81.95 809 Glacier 1,687 29.50 4,032 70.50 -2,345 -41.00 5,719 Golden Valley 405 80.36 99 19.64 306 60.71 504 Granite 1,360 64.73 741 35.27 619 29.46 2,101 Hill 3,746 51.86 3,477 48.14 269 3.72 7,223 Jefferson 5,206 63.70 2,967 36.30 2,239 27.40 8,173 Judith Basin 1,026 76.11 322 23.89 704 52.22 1,348 Lake 8,964 53.91 7,664 46.09 1,300 7.82 16,628 Lewis and Clark 20,554 48.35 21,955 51.65 -1,401 -3.30 42,509 Liberty 789 72.52 299 27.48 490 45.04 1,088 Lincoln 8,490 72.45 3,228 27.55 5,262 44.90 11,718 Madison 4,103 67.06 2,015 32.93 2,088 34.13 6,118 McCone 946 84.24 177 15.76 769 68.48 1,123 Meagher 812 72.63 306 27.37 506 45.26 1,118 Mineral 1,735 68.01 816 31.99 919 36.02 2,551 Missoula 25,529 35.56 46,268 64.44 -20,739 -28.88 71,797 Musselshell 2,341 81.31 538 18.69 1,803 62.63 2,879 Park 5,841 50.32 5,766 49.68 75 0.65 11,607 Petroleum 300 85.47 51 14.53 249 70.94 351 Phillips 1,895 79.69 483 20.31 1,412 59.38 2,378 Pondera 1,933 64.33 1,072 35.67 861 28.65 3,005 Powder River 957 84.17 180 15.83 777 68.34 1,137 Powell 2,240 70.53 936 29.47 1,304 41.06 3,176 Prairie 586 78.45 161 21.55 425 56.89 747 Ravalli 18,706 65.47 9,868 34.53 8,838 30.93 28,574 Richland 4,669 80.63 1,122 19.37 3,547 61.25 5,791 Roosevelt 1,891 46.89 2,142 53.11 -251 -6.22 4,033 Rosebud 2,436 64.55 1,338 35.45 1,098 29.09 3,774 Sanders 5,395 71.12 2,191 28.88 3,204 42.24 7,586 Sheridan 1,356 67.00 668 33.00 688 33.99 2,024 Silver Bow 6,641 35.28 12,183 64.72 -5,542 -29.44 18,824 Stillwater 4,370 76.08 1,374 23.92 2,996 52.16 5,744 Sweet Grass 1,834 74.58 625 25.42 1,209 49.17 2,459 Teton 2,541 68.56 1,165 31.44 1,376 37.13 3,706 Toole 1,528 71.97 595 28.03 933 43.95 2,123 Treasure 376 81.03 88 18.97 288 62.07 464 Valley 2,953 69.34 1,306 30.66 1,647 38.67 4,259 Wheatland 789 74.50 270 25.50 519 49.01 1,059 Wibaux 491 82.38 105 17.62 386 64.76 596 Yellowstone 49,276 58.59 34,833 41.41 14,443 17.17 84,109 Totals 333,174 55.01 272,463 44.99 60,711 10.02 605,637 Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Gallatin (largest municipality: Bozeman) Lewis and Clark (largest municipality: Helena) Roosevelt (largest municipality: Wolf Point)

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Did not vote, "Don't recall", and Undecided with 1%; Would not vote with 0%
4. Undecided with 6%
5. Not yet released
6. Undecided with 5%
7. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 5%
8. Standard VI response
9. "Some other candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
10. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
11. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
12. Undecided with 4%
13. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
14. Geise (G) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
15. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
16. Fredrickson (G) with 4%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
17. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 2%
18. "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 4%
19. Undecided with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
20. Undecided with 10%
21. Undecided with 9.7%
22. Undecided with 7%; "someone else" with 6%; would not vote with 1%
23. Steve Bullock with 38%; Wilmot Collins with 4%; Cora Neumann with 7%; Mike Knoles and John Mues with 2%
24. Jack Ballard with 18%; Wilmot Collins and John Mues with 9%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
2. Poll sponsored by AARP.
3. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
4. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization which has exclusively supported Democratic candidates.