2024 United States Senate election in Virginia

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia. Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine sought a third term. He was being challenged by Republican former U.S. Navy captain Hung Cao. Primary elections took place on June 18, 2024.^[1] The election saw Kaine re-elected.^[2][3]

2024 United States Senate election in Virginia

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →

Nominee Tim Kaine Hung Cao Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 2,305,751 1,953,737 Percentage 54.0% 45.8%

County and independent city results Kaine:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Cao:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election Tim Kaine Democratic Elected U.S. senator Tim Kaine Democratic

Background

Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and the minimum majority in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections.^[4][5][6]

Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points.^[7][8]

This race was considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.^[9]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Tim Kaine, incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present)^[9]

Endorsements

Tim Kaine

U.S representatives

• Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)^[10]

Individuals

• Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)^[11]

Organizations

• Feminist Majority PAC^[12]
• Giffords^[10]
• Harvard College Democrats^[13]
• Humane Society Legislative Fund^[14]
• Jewish Democratic Council of America^[15]
• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs^[16]
• J Street PAC^[17]
• League of Conservation Voters^[18]
• LGBT Democrats of Virginia^[19]
• National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare PAC^[20]
• Natural Resources Defense Council^[21]
• NextGen America PAC^[11]
• Population Connection Action Fund^[22]
• Sierra Club^[23]

Labor unions

• United Mine Workers of America^[24]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Tim Kaine (D)	$14,583,509	$8,488,125	$8,615,046
Source: Federal Election Commission[25]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Hung Cao, former U.S. Navy captain and nominee for Virginia's 10th congressional district in 2022^[26]

Eliminated in primary

• Jonathan Emord, constitutional lawyer^[27]
• Eddie Garcia, financial advisor and former congressional aide^[28]
• Scott Parkinson, former Club for Growth vice president of government affairs and former chief of staff to Ron DeSantis^[29]
• Chuck Smith, former chair of the Virginia Beach Republican Party, nominee for Virginia's 3rd congressional district in 2010, and candidate for attorney general in 2017 and 2021^[30]

Endorsements

Hung Cao

U.S. Presidents

• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)^[31]

Individuals

• Oliver North, former President of the National Rifle Association of America (2018–2019),^[32] nominee for this seat in 1994

Jonathan Emord

U.S. representatives

• Ron Paul, former U.S. representative from TX-14 (1976–1977, 1979–1985, 1997–2013) (Libertarian)^[33]
• Barry Goldwater Jr., former U.S. representative from CA-20 (1969–1983)^[33]

Scott Parkinson

U.S. senators

• Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)
• Jim DeMint, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2005–2013)^[34]
• Mike Lee, U.S. senator from Utah (2011–present)^[35]
• Tommy Tuberville, U.S. senator from Alabama (2021–present)^[36]

U.S. representatives

• Jim Banks, U.S. representative from Indiana (2017–present)^[34]
• Andy Biggs, U.S. representative from Arizona (2017–present)^[34]
• Dan Bishop, U.S. representative from North Carolina (2019–present)^[34]
• Lauren Boebert, U.S. representative from Colorado (2021–present)^[36]
• Josh Brecheen, U.S. representative from Oklahoma (2023–present)^[34]
• Eli Crane, U.S. representative from Arizona (2023–present)^[34]
• Bob Good. U.S. representative from Virginia (2021–present)^[37]
• Byron Donalds, U.S. representative from Florida (2021–present)^[35]
• Mary Miller, U.S. representative from Illinois (2021–present)^[35]
• Barry Moore, U.S. representative from Alabama (2021–present)^[34]
• Anna Paulina Luna, U.S. representative from Florida (2023–present)^[34]
• Scott Perry, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania (2013–present)^[35]
• August Pfluger, U.S. representative from Texas (2021–present)^[35]
• Matt Rosendale, U.S. representative from Montana (2021–present)^[34]
• Jason Smith, U.S. representative from Missouri (2013–present)^[35]

Individuals

• David Bossie, president of Citizens United^[38]

Organizations

• Citizens United^[38]

Chuck Smith

State legislators

• Amanda Chase, former state senator from the 11th district (2016–2024)^[39]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Hung Cao (R)	$2,508,562	$2,398,405	$202,637
Jonathan Emord (R)	$932,828[a]	$897,923	$34,905
Eddie Garcia (R)	$340,558	$315,309	$25,249
Scott Parkinson (R)	$930,240	$601,089	$329,151
Chuck Smith (R)	$556,762	$536,262	$20,499
Source: Federal Election Commission[25]

Results

Results by county and independent city:

  Cao

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%

  Garcia

•   30–40%

Republican primary results^[40]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Hung Cao	168,868	61.79%
	Republican	Scott Parkinson	29,940	10.95%
	Republican	Eddie Garcia	26,777	9.80%
	Republican	Chuck Smith	24,108	8.82%
	Republican	Jonathan Emord	23,614	8.64%
Total votes			273,307	100.00%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[41]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[42]	Solid D	August 9, 2024
Inside Elections[43]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[44]	Safe D	November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[45]	Likely D	August 26, 2024
CNalysis[46]	Solid D	November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[47]	Likely D	August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[48]	Likely D	October 23, 2024
538[49]	Likely D	November 2, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Tim Kaine (D)

U.S. representatives

• Denver Riggleman, former Republican U.S. representative from Virginia's 5th congressional district (2019–2021) (Independent)^[50]

Organizations

• CASA in Action^[51]
• People for the American Way^[52]

Newspapers

• The Washington Post^[53]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Tim Kaine (D)	$15,990,927	$10,698,945	$7,811,645
Hung Cao (R)	$3,051,361	$2,729,334	$414,508
Source: Federal Election Commission[25]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Tim Kaine (D)	Hung Cao (R)	Undecided [b]	Margin
FiveThirtyEight	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	51.9%	41.2%	6.9%	Kaine +10.7%
RealClearPolitics	October 19 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	52.0%	41.2%	6.8%	Kaine +10.8%
270toWin	October 26 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	51.2%	41.8%	7.0%	Kaine +9.4%
TheHill/DDHQ	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	52.2%	42.4%	6.4%	Kaine +9.8%
Average			51.8%	41.6%	6.6%	Kaine +10.2%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Tim Kaine (D)	Hung Cao (R)	Other	Undecided
AtlasIntel	November 1–4, 2024	2,202 (LV)	± 2.0%	53%	44%	1%[d]	2%
Research Co.	November 2–3, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	53%	41%	–	6%
Chism Strategies	October 28–30, 2024	520 (LV)	± 4.3%	46%	45%	–	9%
Cygnal (R)	October 27–29, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	52%	42%	–	7%
Roanoke College	October 25–29, 2024	851 (LV)	± 4.6%	51%	40%	3%[e]	6%
ActiVote	October 2–28, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	55%	45%	–	–
The Washington Post/ George Mason University	October 19–23, 2024	1,004 (LV)	± 3.5%	54%	41%	1%[f]	4%
		1,004 (RV)	± 3.5%	54%	40%	1%[f]	5%
ActiVote	September 9 – October 14, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	56%	44%	–	–
Christopher Newport University	September 28 – October 4, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.4%	55%	35%	5%[g]	5%
Emerson College[A]	September 22–24, 2024	860 (LV)	± 3.3%	51%	41%	2%	6%
Research America[B]	September 3–9, 2024	1,000 (A)	± 3.0%	45%	38%	8%[h]	9%
		756 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	43%	2%	6%
The Washington Post/ George Mason University	September 4–8, 2024	1,005 (RV)	± 3.5%	53%	41%	1%[f]	5%
		1,005 (LV)	± 3.5%	53%	41%	–	5%
ActiVote	July 24 – September 1, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	55%	45%	–	–
Roanoke College	August 12–16, 2024	691 (LV)	± 4.5%	49%	38%	10%[i]	3%
Emerson College[C]	July 14–15, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	39%	4%[j]	8%
Mainstreet Research/FAU	July 14–15, 2024	301 (A)	± 3.2%	42%	33%	5%[k]	20%
		265 (LV)	± 3.2%	44%	34%	4%[l]	19%
	July 12–13, 2024	617 (A)	± 3.2%	45%	32%	7%[m]	15%
		544 (LV)	± 3.2%	47%	34%	6%[n]	13%
NYT/Siena College	July 9–12, 2024	661 (RV)	± 4.2%	52%	34%	–	14%
		661 (LV)	± 4.4%	52%	36%	–	12%
Virginia Commonwealth University	June 24 – July 3, 2024	809 (A)	± 4.8%	49%	38%	14%[o]	–
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[D]	April 26–28, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	48%	36%	1%	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Tim Kaine (D)	Glenn Youngkin (R)	Other	Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University	July 14–25, 2023	804 (A)	± 5.46%	47%	42%	3%[p]	7%
University of Mary Washington	September 6–12, 2022	1,000 (A)	± 3.1%	41%	39%	10%[q]	10%

Hypothetical polling

Tim Kaine vs. Glenn Youngkin

Debates

2024 Virginia U.S. Senate election debate

No.	Date	Host	Moderators	Link	Democratic	Republican
Key:  P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
					Kaine	Cao
1	Oct. 2, 2024	NSU	Tom Schaad & Deanna Allbrittin[54]	YouTube	P	P

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2024

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Tim Kaine (incumbent)
	Republican	Hung Cao
Total votes				100.00%

See also

• 2024 Virginia elections

Notes

1. $528,167 of this total was self-funded by Emord
2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
3. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
5. "Refused" with 2%; "Some other candidate" with 1%
6. "Would not vote" with 1%
7. "Refused" with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
8. "None/Wouldn't Vote" with 5%
9. "Someone else" with 10%
10. "Someone else" with 4%
11. "Another party" with 5%
12. "Another party" with 4%
13. "Another party" with 7%
14. "Another party" with 6%
15. "Wouldn't vote" with 8%; "Someone else" with 6%
16. None/Would not vote with 2%, other with 1%
17. None/Would not vote with 5%, other with 5%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
2. Poll sponsored by University of Mary Washington
3. Poll sponsored by The Hill
4. Poll sponsored by Virginians Against Neighborhood Slot Machines

References

1. "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
2. Salamy, Elissa (November 5, 2024). "Kaine wins re-election for Virginia Senate". Fox 5 Washington D.C. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
3. Manchester, Julia (November 5, 2024). "Tim Kaine wins reelection in Virginia". The Hill. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
4. "Live election results: 2020 Virginia results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
5. Oliver, Ned (March 3, 2021). "Democrats have controlled Virginia government for two years. Here's what they've done". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
6. "GOP sweeps statewide races with 2 down-ballot wins". AP NEWS. November 2, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
7. "Virginia Elections Database » 2012 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
8. "Virginia | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
9. Flynn, Meagan; Vozzella, Laura (January 20, 2023). "Va. Sen. Tim Kaine says he will seek another term". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
10. "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine for Reelection". Giffords. February 22, 2024. Retrieved February 26, 2024.
11. "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
12. "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
13. "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
14. "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
15. "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
16. "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
17. "Tim Kaine". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
18. "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
19. "2024 Endorsed Candidates". LGBT+ Democrats of Virginia. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
20. NCPSSM. "National Seniors' Advocacy Group Endorses Sen. Tim Kaine for Re-Election". NCPSSM. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
21. Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
22. "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
23. "2024 Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
24. "Virginia - COMPAC Endorsements". United Mine Workers of America. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
25. "2024 Election United States Senate - Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
26. Minock, Nick (July 18, 2023). "Hung Cao launches website and files paperwork to run for 2024 US Senate race in Virginia". WJLA.com.
27. Churchill, Victoria (January 31, 2023). "Constitutional Litigator Jonathan Emord Announces U.S. Senate Run". The Republican Standard. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
28. Rankin, Sarah (January 20, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia to seek reelection". AP News. Archived from the original on January 20, 2023. Retrieved April 21, 2023.
29. Rankin, Sarah (April 3, 2023). "Scott Parkinson runs for Tim Kaine's seat". The Virginia Pilot. Archived from the original on April 3, 2023.
30. Martz, Michael (August 5, 2023). "Meet the 8 Republicans (and counting) who want to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
31. Iannelli, Nick (May 27, 2024). "Republican US Senate candidate in Virginia 'honored' to receive Trump endorsement". WTOP. Retrieved May 27, 2024.
32. "A true patriot's endosement". PoliticalEmails. Archived from the original on February 23, 2024. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
33. "U.S. Senate Candidate Jonathan Emord Receives the Endorsements of Ron Paul and Barry Goldwater, Jr". FOX 59. March 14, 2023. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
34. Johnson, Julia (May 2023). "Tim Kaine GOP challenger holds fundraiser with Trump and DeSantis supporters alike". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
35. Hazard, Charlotte. "Ex-DeSantis Hill staffer runs for U.S. Senate, says pandemic was his call for change". Just the News. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
36. Shipley, Jonathan (May 31, 2023). "Former Baraboo resident eyes Virginia Senate". News Republic. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
37. Martz, Michael (February 2, 2024). "Here's how much money Sen. Tim Kaine has raised in bid for new term". Richmond Times Dispatch. Retrieved April 21, 2024.
38. "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Scott Parkinson for U.S. Senate from Virginia". cupvf.com. April 24, 2023. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
39. Cantor, Dave (March 20, 2024). "These are the GOP candidates hoping to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". VPM. Retrieved May 5, 2024.
40. "June 18, 2024 Republican Party Primary Official Results". Virginia Department of Elections.
41. "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
42. "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
43. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
44. "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
45. "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
46. "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
47. "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
48. "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
49. "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
50. Vozzella, Laura (October 16, 2024). "Former GOP Rep. Riggleman endorses Democratic Sen. Kaine of Virginia". The Washington Post. Retrieved October 16, 2024.
51. "CASA in Action Announces Its 2024 Virginia General Election Endorsements". CASA in Action (Press release). August 23, 2024. Retrieved September 1, 2024.
52. "People For Endorses Seven New and Incumbent Senate Candidates in "Defend the Senate" Campaign". People for the American Way (Press release). July 29, 2024. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
53. "Opinion | The Post endorses Tim Kaine for U.S. Senate in Virginia". The Washington Post. September 23, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
54. Alvarez-Wertz, Jane (October 2, 2024). "Rules for the Virginia Senate Debate". WAVY TV 10. Archived from the original on October 3, 2024. Retrieved October 4, 2024.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Hung Cao (R) for Senate
• Tim Kaine (D) for Senate