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Early general elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on 27 October 2024,[2] due to the early dissolution of the House of Representatives by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Voting will take place in all constituencies including proportional blocks, to elect Members of Diet to seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet of Japan.
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All 465 seats in the House of Representatives 233 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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House of Representatives districts after 2022 redistricting | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The elections will come just a month after Ishiba took the office of prime minister, after winning a heated contest in the party presidential election on 27 September following the resignation of Fumio Kishida as party leader due to his low approval rating amid the party-wide slush fund corruption scandal. The dissolution was eight days after the prime minister's inauguration and 26 days before the voting day, both the shortest since the end of the war.
Since the last general election in 2021, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was caught in a series of political crises, firstly the assassination of Shinzo Abe and anti-government protests in 2022, which led to the heightened scrutiny against the allegations surrounding the Unification Church and its link to his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The close relationship between the party and the church caused a drop in approval rating of the Kishida cabinet,[3][4] and led to the first reshuffle of his cabinet on 10 August and second reshuffle in September 2023 to remove cabinet members affiliated with the church.[5][6]
The Kishida government was further damaged by the party-wide slush fund corruption scandal in late 2023, which saw his approval rate drop to 23% as of 13 December 2023, the lowest such rating any prime minister had had since the LDP returned to power in 2012.[7] By 22 December, Kishida's approval rate had further declined to 17%.[8] On 18 January 2024, Kishida announced his intention to dissolve his Kōchikai faction as a result of the scandal.[9] The following day on 19 January, the Shisuikai and Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai factions announced their dissolutions.[10]
Kishida never recovered from the record-low approval ratings amid fallout from the scandal. His party lost all three seats up for election in the 2024 Japan by-elections, which were previously held by LDP or LDP-affiliated independents.[11] On 14 August 2024, Kishida announced that he would step down as party president, thereby not seeking re-election in September.[12]
On 30 September 2024, former Minister of Defense Shigeru Ishiba, who won the nine-way heated contest in the party presidential election on 27 September, officially announced that he would call an early election to be held on 27 October, a year ahead of the expiration of the current term, to seek confidence from the people. After his inauguration as the prime minister on 1 October, the House of Representatives was dissolved on 9 October, with the election being announced on the 15th, and voting to take place on the 27th.[13]
The election is held after the replacement of major party leaders. The LDP elected Ishiba as new leader on 27 September, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) elected former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda on 23 September, Nobuyuki Baba took leadership of Nippon Ishin no Kai on 30 November 2021, Keiichi Ishii was elected leader of Komeito on 28 September, and Tomoko Tamura became leader of the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) on 18 January 2024. It is the first time since 2012 where all three of the leading parties in the Diet have had new leadership entering the next election.
The regular election to the House of Councillors, the other house of the national legislature which cannot be dissolved and is thus on fixed terms, will take place in 2025; but, also on 27 October, a by-election to the House of Councillors will be held in Iwate. On the prefectural level, the gubernatorial elections in Toyama and Okayama have already been set for 27 October.
This was the first dissolution of the Diet since 14 October 2021. The dissolution was eight days after the prime minister's inauguration and the voting and counting 26 days later that, both the shortest since the end of the war.[14]
The 465 seats of the House of Representatives are contested via parallel voting: 289 members are elected in single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post voting, while 176 members are elected in 11 multi-member constituencies via party list proportional representation. Candidates from parties with legal political party status (≥5 Diet members, or ≥1 Diet member and ≥2% of the nationwide vote in one tier of a recent national election) are allowed to stand in a constituency and be present in the party list, such that if they lose their constituency election, they may still be elected in the proportionally allocated seats; but, if such a dual candidate wins less than 10 % of the vote in his majoritarian constituency, he is also disqualified as a proportional candidate.
The electoral districts will be readjusted according to the results of the 2020 Japan census. Originally, it was intended to be readjusted for the last election, but it was held in the existing constituencies not long after the census results came out.[15][16]
Ten new districts and three new block seats will be created.
Ten districts and three block seats will be eliminated.
Parties | Leader | Ideology | Seats | Status | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last election | At dissolution[17] | |||||
Liberal Democratic Party | Shigeru Ishiba | Conservatism Japanese nationalism |
259 / 465 |
247 / 465 |
Governing coalition | |
Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan | Yoshihiko Noda | Liberalism | 96 / 465 |
98 / 465 |
Opposition | |
Nippon Ishin no Kai | Nobuyuki Baba | Right-wing populism Economic liberalism |
41 / 465 |
44 / 465 | ||
Komeito | Keiichi Ishii | Buddhist democracy | 32 / 465 |
32 / 465 |
Governing coalition | |
Japanese Communist Party | Tomoko Tamura | Communism | 10 / 465 |
10 / 465 |
Opposition | |
Democratic Party For the People | Yuichiro Tamaki | Conservatism | 11 / 465 |
7 / 465 | ||
Reiwa Shinsengumi | Tarō Yamamoto | Progressivism Left-wing populism |
3 / 465 |
3 / 465 | ||
Social Democratic Party | Mizuho Fukushima | Social democracy | 1 / 465 |
1 / 465 | ||
Sanseitō | Sohei Kamiya | Right-wing populism Ultraconservatism |
0 / 465 |
1 / 465 | ||
Nonpartisan and others | N/A | N/A | 12 / 465 |
22 / 465 |
Single-member districts candidates |
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Reference |
As of 15 October, there were 314 women competing in the election, which exceeded the number recorded in the 2009 election. The proportion of women in the electoral race also increased from 5.7% in 2021 to 23.4%. There were also 136 candidates who were related to previous officeholders, making up 10% of all candidates. The the LDP accounted for 97 of them, equivalent to 28.4% of all its candidates, while the CDP had 27 candidates, equivalent to 11.4% of its list.[18]
On 6 October, Shigeru Ishiba indicated that he would not endorse any lawmakers who have been suspended from party membership over the LDP slush fund scandal. Ishiba also indicated that those who had involved scandal, whether they had been sanctioned or not, would not also be banned from running double candidacy in single-seat districts and proportional representation blocs, which was expected to affect at least 30 such candidates.[19] He explained that it was a response to the "criticism and anger" of the public which were stronger than they expected.[20]
On 9 October, the LDP officially pulled its endorsement of the following 12 members:[21]
Party membership suspended:
Suspended from party positions for one year which still in effect:
Suspended from party positions for six months which now expired:
Received disciplinary reprimand:
No punishment received:
On 11 October, three members who were involved in the scandal, all from the former Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai faction, including former Parliamentary Vice-Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications Mio Sugita, who was suspended from party positions for six months, former Vice-Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications Asako Omi, who was given a reprimand, and former Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs Kentaro Uesugi, who did not receive any disciplinary action, would withdraw their candidacies in the election.[23]
Keiichi Ishii, leader of the Komeito which was LDP's junior coalition partner, said on 8 October that the party would not recommend LDP lawmakers who were not officially endorsed in the election,[24] but decided to recommend Nishimura and Mitsubayashi on 9 October despite LDP decision based on the wishes of the party's local organizations.[25]
After holding talks with the right-leaning Nippon Ishin no Kai leader Nobuyuki Baba and Democratic Party for the People (DPTP) leader Yuichiro Tamaki on 3 October in an attempt to unifying opposition candidates for constituencies to prevent the LDP and its Komeito ally from securing a majority, CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda on 4 October switched his stance to aiming to form a government on its own by filling more candidates in the proportional representation blocks.[27][28]
The CDP and the left-wing pacifist JCP also had differences over their stances on the security-related laws, as Noda aimed at winning over "moderate conservatives" critical of the LDP government, by formulating more middle-of-the-road foreign policy and security measures including the continuation of the laws, while the JCP, which was fielding as many as 216 candidates in the single-seat constituencies, advocated for the repeal of the laws under the banner of the opposition coalition during the 2016 House of Councillors election.[29]
The Nikkei on 11 October reported that the opposition could only manage to have 55 constituencies where they would be an one-on-one battle with the LDP, under 20% of the 289 single-seat constituencies as compared to the 140 constituencies in the previous election in 2021. There would be 81 constituencies where CDP, Ishin and other parties compete, and 67 where CDP competes with opposition parties other than Ishin.[30]
On 3 October, Seiji Maehara, leader of the Free Education For All which commanded four seats in the Diet, announced that his party would join the Nippon Ishin no Kai after months of talks for merger and would run as Ishin-endorsed candidates in the upcoming election. However, House of Representatives member Atsushi Suzuki, who would run in the Kanagawa 18th district, did not join the coalition due to its competition with a Ishin candidate in the same constituency. On the same day he announced that he would run as an official candidate for the Sanseitō party.[31]
The LDP slush fund scandal became a major issue during the 12 October hosted by the Japan National Press Club on 12 October. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda criticised that the Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's dissolution of the Diet was a "cover-up" of the scandal and that "a change of government is the greatest political reform". Ishiba said that he would consider abolishing the policy activity expenses in the future, but maintained that "it is legal under the current system" and the party would not use it "restrainedly" when questioned by DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki.[32] Ishin leader Nobuyuki Baba also criticised Komeito's decision to recommend two former LDP lawmakers which were not endorsed by the LDP due to the scandal. Komeito leader Ishii Keiichi explained that the decision was based on criteria such as "the understanding of local [Komeito] party members and supporters".[33]
Several opposition parties called for the reduction or abolition of the consumption tax, with the CDP suggested a "tax credit with benefits" that would essentially refund part of the consumption tax by combining tax credits and benefits for low- and middle-income earners. But Ishiba argued that the country needed a stable source of funding for social security going forward and would not consider lowering the tax.[34]
Noda suggested that Japan should participate as an observer in the Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in order to achieve nuclear abolition, while Ishiba stressed the functionality of nuclear deterrence.[33] Noda also said he would abolish the unconstitutional parts of the security-related laws if the CDP gained power.[35] Baba questioned Ishiba's determination and feasibility in reviewing the U.S.–Japan Status of Forces Agreement, a pledge made during the recent LDP leadership race.[33]
Date | Host | Format | Venue |
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LDP | CDP | Ishin | Komei | JCP | DPFP | Reiwa | SDP | Sansei | ||||||||
12 October | Japan National Press Club | Debate | Japan National Press Club, Tokyo[36] | P Ishiba |
P Noda |
P Baba |
P Ishii |
P Tamura |
P Tamaki |
P Yamamoto |
NI | NI | ||||
13 October | NHK (Nichiyō Tōron) | Debate | NHK Broadcasting Center, Tokyo[37] | P Ishiba |
P Noda |
P Baba |
P Ishii |
P Tamura |
P Tamaki |
P Yamamoto |
P Fukushima |
P Kamiya | ||||
Party | +/– | |
---|---|---|
Liberal Democratic Party | – | |
Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan | – | |
Nippon Ishin no Kai | – | |
Komeito | – | |
Japanese Communist Party | – | |
Democratic Party For the People | – | |
Reiwa Shinsengumi | – | |
Social Democratic Party | – | |
Sanseitō | – | |
NHK Party | – | |
Conservative Party of Japan | – | |
Consideration the Euthanasia System | – | |
Independents | – | |
Total | 0 |
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