The 2024 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will be held on 27 September 2024 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan for a 3-year term. The winner of the election will effectively become the next Prime Minister of Japan due to the LDP's majority in the National Diet and will lead the party in the next general election and the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election.
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President of the LDP and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on 14 August that he would not run for re-election, amid record-low approval ratings following the party's controversy over its affiliation with the Unification Church, and a slush fund scandal involving the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions.[2][3][4][5]
Election procedure
The election process for the President of the LDP is established in the "Rules for the Election of President of the Party". In order to officially qualify as a candidate in the election, a candidate must be an LDP member of the National Diet and must receive a nomination from at least 20 fellow LDP Diet members.
The LDP selects its leader via a two-round election involving both LDP members of the Diet and dues-paying party members from across Japan. In the first round, all LDP members of the Diet cast one vote while party member votes are translated proportionally into votes equaling the other half of the total ballots. If any candidate wins a majority (over 50%) of votes in the first round, that candidate is elected president.
If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round, a runoff is held immediately between the top two candidates. In the runoff, all Diet members vote again while the 47 prefectural chapters of the LDP get one vote each, with the result of the latter votes determined using the first round results of party members in each prefecture. The candidate who wins the most votes in the runoff is then elected president.
Background
Following the resignation of party president and prime minister Yoshihide Suga, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida was elected President of the LDP in 2021, defeating Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform minister Taro Kono in a second round runoff, becoming the prime minister on 4 October 2021.[6]
Assassination of Shinzo Abe and ties to the Unification Church
Following assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe in 2022, the Unification Church (UC) new religious movement was shown to have significant political influence in the LDP, and the popularity for the party, as well as Kishida's approval rating decreased.[7] Kishida reshuffled his cabinet on 10 August 2022 in an effort to remove cabinet ministers associated with the UC in order to regain public trust in his government.[7][8]
Kishida reshuffled his cabinet once again on 13 September 2023 as his premiership continued to lose public support. The reshuffle was highlighted for its comparatively high proportion of women in official roles and the inclusion of members of opposing factions in high-ranking roles such as Taro Kono and Toshimitsu Motegi.[9]
Slush fund scandal
In November 2023, it was discovered that members of the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions failed to report over JP¥600 million (US$4.06 million) in campaign funds, which they had instead placed in unlawful slush funds. This led to a scandal concerning the misuse of campaign funds by these members.[10][11]
Amidst the escalating scandal, Kishida declared on 13 December 2023 that he was dismissing Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Junji Suzuki, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Ichiro Miyashita. Hiroyuki Miyazawa, the deputy minister of defense, was also removed from office. All the expelled officials belonged to the Seiwakai faction.[12][13][14] The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party submitted a vote of no confidence against Matsuno and the entire Kishida's cabinet as a result of the scandal.[15][16] Although both motions failed due to the LDP's majority in the National Diet, it was the closest no confidence vote in decades due to the rare unity between Japan's opposition parties in voting in favor of the vote.[17]
The first arrests took place on 7 January 2024, with former deputy minister of education Yoshitaki Ikeda and Kazuhiro Kakinuma, his assistant, being accused of concealing ¥48 million that the Seiwakai earned between 2018 and 2022. The National Police Agency justified their arrest by claiming that there was a chance of evidence destruction. Ikeda was expelled from the LDP after details of the arrests were made public.[18]
On 7 December 2023, Kishida announced his resignation as leader of the moderate Kōchikai faction, which he led since 2012 and announced he will leave the faction due to the scandal. A month later in January 2024, Kōchikai, along with Seiwakai and Shisuikai were dissolved, leaving Motegi's Heisei Kenkyūkai and Tarō Asō's Shikōkai as the only remaining factions left in the party.[19][20]
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Continued unpopularity and resignation
Kishida's approval ratings continued to fall in the aftermath of the scandal, dropping to 23% on 13 December 2023, marking the lowest rating for any Prime Minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012. By 22 December, his approval ratings had further decreased to 17%. According to a Mainichi Shimbun poll conducted on 18 December 2023, 79% of respondents disapprove of Kishida's performance as Prime Minister, the highest disapproval rate since the end of World War II.[21][12][22]
Concerns emerged about Kishida's ability to lead the party to victory in the upcoming general election, with the scandal leading to speculations that the LDP could potentially lose power in favor of a CDP-led coalition.[23] Ex-Seiwakai member and House of Representatives member Takatori Shuichi said that he does not believe the party can maintain a majority in the National Diet if Kishida is reelected as party president, while Kishida's predecessor Suga on 23 June called for the resignation of Kishida, stating that the party would lose power if "things continue like this".[24][25] Mainichi Shimbun reports that the party could split between pro-Kishida and anti-Kishida forces ahead of the election, with some supporting Suga's criticism of Kishida.[26] On 14 August, Kishida announced that he would not seek another term as president, adding that he was withdrawing so that the party could have an "open contest to promote debate".[27][28][29]
Campaign
Prelude
Sanae Takaichi on 18 June 2024 announced that she will be publishing a book on economic security titled "Japan's Economic Security" (日本の経済安全保障), to be published on 8 July, the second anniversary of Shinzo Abe's assassination. There are views within the party that the book is an early campaign manifesto for her presidential run.[30] On 30 June The Asahi Shimbun reported that Sanae Takaichi had decided to run for the presidential election.[31] She denied this in a post on Twitter, and later declined to comment on 2 July.[32]
On 26 June, Taro Kono, who made it to the second round in 2021, conveyed his desire to run for the presidency to LDP Vice President and his faction boss Taro Aso, during dinner.[33] Governor of Gunma Ichita Yamamoto announced his intentions to endorse Kono in a press conference the following day.[34] On 10 August, Kono again conveyed his desire to run to Taro Aso. He reportedly told Aso he would run with or without his support.[35]
Shigeru Ishiba on 28 June informed his political allies of his intentions to run for the presidency and has begun making "concrete arrangements".[36] He indicated on 11 July that he would make a decision by August.[37] Later on 21 July Ishiba said he would decide around the Obon holiday period (August 13–16).[38] Two days later he said that were he to run, he would campaign on deleting the second paragraph of Article 9 in the Japanese Constitution renouncing Japan's right to wage war.[39] Ishiba declared his candidacy on 14 August, hours after Kishida's resignation.[40]
On 2 July the Yukan Fuji reported that Shinjirō Koizumi may be preparing to run for LDP president, with a goal of making it to the second round runoff.[41] While visiting Fukushima Prefecture for a surfing competition, Koizumi said he was "carefully considering" a run for the party presidency.[42] Diet Member Naoki Furukawa suggested Kishida be replaced by Koizumi on 12 July.[43]
LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi visited Fumio Kishida's home prefecture of Hiroshima on 6 July.[44] Motegei later said on 22 July that he would not be the first candidate to formally declare his intention to run, in order to avoid becoming the "Reiwa era Nobuteru Ishihara" who ran in the 2012 election.[45] On the same day, he stated he would make a decision by early September.[46] Motegi will embark on a trip to Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines on 28 July in an effort to boost his profile.[47]
Jiji reported on 21 July that the LDP would establish an election committee for the presidential election on 26 July. The 11-person committee is headed by Diet Member Ichiro Aisawa, and will most likely determine the election date to be between September 20 to 30, with the two most likely dates being the 20th and 27th.[48][49]
On 24 July Seiko Noda met with policy chief Tokai Kisaburo, Diet Affairs Chair Hamada Yasukazu (both of whom endorsed her campaign in 2021) and others to discuss her potential candidacy.[50]
Takayuki Kobayashi indicated on 12 August that the party should “balance out” punishments against Abe faction members for the kickback scandal, arguing that removal from leadership has made on the ground activities challenging.[51] LDP Upper House Member Shigeharu Aoyama indicated in a press conference that he would run for the Presidency.[52] The same day Diet members Tatsuo Fukuda, Masanobu Ogura and Keitaro Ohno stated in an opinion piece that the election was “a big opportunity for a change in generation and appointing women,” seemingly calling for Kishida to step aside.[53]
Kishida declines and Kobayashi enters
On 14 August, Fumio Kishida announced that he would not seek a second term as President of the Liberal Democratic Party.[54] This effectively made the race an “open field” for new candidates.[55] Kishida was reportedly pressured by influential members of the party, such as Taro Aso, Masahito Moriyama and Yoshimasa Hayashi to not seek a second term.[56][57] The announcement reportedly unsettled Japanese markets, which were already disturbed by a surprise rate increase by the Bank of Japan in late July.[58] At a press conference at the Prime Minister’s Office on the same day, Kishida stated resigning was the “easiest way to clearly show that the LDP has changed”.[59][60] He also cited the slush funds scandal as a reason for stepping aside, believing it was the only way to take “responsibility” as party leader for losing trust from the public.[61] He pledged to support whoever will be chosen by the party as a rank-and-file member, refusing to endorse a particular candidate.[62] Kishida’s more than 1,000 days in power made him Japan’s eighth longest-serving post-war prime minister.[63]
Kishda’s decision to not seek a second term made the leadership election “especially chaotic".[64] Immediately after Kishida’s announcement, several potential candidates were mentioned, among them being Taro Kono, Shigeru Ishiba, Toshimitsu Motegi, Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi.[65] Seiko Noda, Katsunobu Kato and Yoko Kamikawa were also considered potential contenders.[66][67]
The night after the press conference, Toshimitsu Motegi met with Taro Aso, who said it would be difficult to support him.[68] Early after Kishida’s announcement, it was reported that it was unlikely he would back Motegi.[69] The day after his announcement on 15 August, Kishida informed his cabinet ministers that they may start campaigning for LDP President as long as it doesn't affect their duties as ministers. That same day, Shinjiro Koizumi and Takayuki Kobayaashi visited the Yasukuni Shrine on the 79th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in World War II.[70][71] Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ken Saito also said he was interested in running, after previously backing Kishida.[72] Potential candidate Yukio Obuchi stated that she would support Saito over her faction boss Motegi.[73] Yoshimasa Hayashi reportedly told fellow lawmakers on 16 August that he was keen on running.[74] On 17 August, Yōko Kamikawa announced her candidacy in a tweet.[75] She later stated that she was running to make Japan “an attractive country for all”.[76] That same day, several candidates were asked on their position on same-sex marriage. Kono stated he supported it, Ishiba, Saito, Kato and Kamikawa took a neutral stance, while Kobayashi and Takaichi stated they opposed it. Koizumi, Hayashi and Motegi did not give a response.[77] By 17 August, it was reported that Hayashi and Kono had secured enough endorsements to declare their own candidacies.[78] On 19 August, a date of 27 September was set for the election.[79] Upper House Diet member Hiroshi Yamada told reporters on 21 August that Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi had secured 20 endorsements, and she believed she would formally announce her candidacy next week.[80] She had reportedly been struggling to get the adequate endorsements.[81]
The day after Kishida’s announcement, Kobayashi appeared to have already amassed 20 endorsements, and was preparing to announce his candidacy soon.[82] He visited sites related to North Korea's 1977 abduction of Megumi Yokota on 17 August.[83] Former Minister of State for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi became the first to formally announce their candidacy during a press conference on August 19, emphasizing the need to "reform" the party.[84] On 23 August Kobayashi stated "We should proceed carefully and cautiously with optional separate surnames for married couples".[85]
The same day, Katsunobu Kato said he had close to 20 endorsements.[86] Yomiuri reported that Koizumi planned to formally announce his candidacy on August 30.[87] The following day it was reported that Yoshimasa Hayashi was struggling to announce his own candidacy and amass his own endorsements.[88] He originally planned to announce on August 27, but had to postpone in order to prioritize the government response to an imminent typhoon, in his capacity as Chief Cabinet Secretary.[89] On 25 August, Kamikawa told reporters that she had secured more than 20 endorsements.[90]
Ishiba and Kono declares
Shigeru Ishiba was in Taipei when the news of Kishida’s not seeking another term broke. He stated that if he could receive 20 endorsements, he would run.[91] He also said he'd be open to appointing Abe faction members to key posts if they're reelected.[92] Ishiba announced his candidacy on 24 August in his home constituency of Tottori.[93] He described his campaign as the “culmination of my 38 year political career”.[94] His fifth LDP presidential campaign, Ishiba said it would be his “last”.[95][96] At the event, he questioned whether the party should endorse candidates who received kickbacks at the next general election.[97] A press conference was expected the following week.[98]
Digital Minister Taro Kono announced his candidacy in a press conference held on 26 August in Tokyo.[99][100][101] He became the first sitting Cabinet minister to announce. In his press conference, he stated he wanted to "move the country forward" as leader.[102] Kono also acknowledged that his "record on reform" would be put to the test during the election. On economic policy, he said he would return to "fiscal austerity." Kono also said he would ask lawmakers receiving kickbacks to return the money.[103] The day after Kono’s press conference, Taro Aso told faction members that he would personally back Kono, but would allow members to support other candidates.[104][105] Members of the dissolved Abe faction were reportedly frustrated with Ishiba’s and Kono’s questioning of support to members who received financial kickbacks.[106]
On 27 August, it was reported that Takaichi had also been forced to postpone her campaign announcement to the following week due to a typhoon.[107] The next day Sankei reported she would officially declare on 9 September.[108] Hayashi was reportedly planning to formally declare his candidacy on 3 September.[109] Meanwhile, Koizumi confirmed in a tweet that he would formally announce his campaign in a press conference on 6 September.[110][111]
Candidates
Declared
The following candidates have officially declared their intention to run for the leadership:
| Candidate(s) | Date of birth | Current position | Party faction | Electoral district | Reference(s) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
25 July 1952 (age 72) |
Member of the House of Councillors (since 2016) |
None |  |
[52] | |
 |
4 February 1957 (age 67) |
Member of the House of Representatives (since 1986) Previous offices held
|
Suigetsukai (Ishiba) |
 |
[112][113] | |
 |
29 November 1974 (age 49) |
Member of the House of Representatives (since 2012) Previous offices held
|
None |  |
[114][115] | |
.jpg) |
10 January 1963 (age 61) |
Minister for Digital Transformation (since 2022) Member of the House of Representatives (since 1996) Previous offices held
|
Shikōkai (Asō) |
 |
[116][117][99][100] | |
Announcement pending
The following are expected to announce their candidacy within a set time frame:
| Candidate(s) | Date of birth | Current position | Party faction | Electoral district | Reference(s) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
19 January 1961 (age 63) |
Chief Cabinet Secretary (since 2023) Member of the House of Representatives (since 2021) Previous offices held
|
None |  |
[118] | |
.jpg) |
1 March 1953 (age 71) |
Minister for Foreign Affairs (since 2023) Member of the House of Representatives (since 2000) Previous offices held
|
None |  |
[119][120] | |
.jpg) |
22 November 1955 (age 68) |
Member of the House of Representatives (since 2003) Previous offices held
|
None |  |
[121] | |
 |
14 April 1981 (age 43) |
Member of the House of Representatives (since 2009) Previous offices held
|
None | |
[122] | |
 |
14 June 1959 (age 65) |
Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (since 2023) Member of the House of Representatives (since 2009) Previous offices held
|
None | |
[123] | |
 |
7 March 1961 (age 63) |
Minister of State for Economic Security (since 2022) Member of the House of Representatives (since 1993) Previous offices held
|
None |  |
[124] | |
Decision pending
- Toshimitsu Motegi, Minister for Foreign Affairs (2019–2021), Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy (2017–2019), Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2012–2014), Member of the House of Representatives (1993–present)[125] (decision expected by early September)[46]
Publicly expressed interest
- Seiko Noda, Minister-in-charge of Measures against Declining Birthrate (2021–2022), Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2017–2018), Member of the House of Representatives (1993–present)[126]
.jpg)
Potential candidates
Based on opinion polls[127][128][129][130][131]
- Kōichi Hagiuda, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2021–2022), Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (2019–2021), Member of the House of Representatives (2003–2009; 2012–present)
- Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2022–2023), Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy (2019–2021), Member of the House of Representatives (2003–present)
Declined
- Fumio Kishida, incumbent Prime Minister (2021–present), Minister for Foreign Affairs (2012–2017), Member of the House of Representatives (1996–present)[132][133][134]
- Yūko Obuchi, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2014), Member of the House of Representatives (2000–present) (endorsed Saito)[73]
- Yoshihide Suga, Prime Minister (2020–2021), Chief Cabinet Secretary (2012–2020), Member of the House of Representatives (1996–present), Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2006–2007)[135](endorsed Koizumi)
Endorsements
- Cabinet-level officials
- Hiroshi Moriya (Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, 2023–present; Member of the House of Councillors, 2013–present)[136]
- Members of the National Diet
- Seishi Baba (Member of the House of Councillors, 2013–present)[137]
- Cabinet-level officials
- Midori Matsushima (Minister of Justice, 2014; Member of the House of Representatives, 2000–2009; 2012–present)[138]
- Members of the National Diet
- Former Prime Ministers
- Yoshihide Suga (Prime Minister, 2020–2021; Chief Cabinet Secretary, 2012–2020; Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications, 2006–2007; Member of the House of Representatives, 1996–present)[135]
- Members of the National Diet
- Naoki Furukawa (Member of the House of Representatives, 2021–present)[141]
- Masanobu Ogura (Member of the House of Representatives, 2012–present)[142]
- Kiyoto Tsuji (Member of the House of Representatives, 2012–present)[142]
- Miki Yamada (Member of the House of Representatives, 2012–present)[142]
- Prefectural officials
- Ichita Yamamoto (Governor of Gunma, 2019–present; Member of the House of Councillors, 1995–2019)[34]
- Cabinet-level officials
- Yūko Obuchi (Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2014); Member of the House of Representative (2000–present)[73]
- Members of the National Diet
- Tōru Doi (Member of the House of Representatives, 2005–2009; 2012–present)[143]
- Iwao Horii (Member of the House of Councillors, 2013–present)[144]
- Akimasa Ishikawa (Member of the House of Representatives, 2012–present)[145]
- Shigeki Kobayashi (Member of the House of Representatives, 2012–2014; 2017–present)[146]
- Shoji Nishida (Member of the House of Councillors, 2007–present)[147]
- Kei Satō (Member of the House of Councillors, 2016–present)[148]
- Hiroshi Yamada (Member of the House of Councillors, 2016–present; Member of the House of Representatives, 1993–1996; 2012–2014; Mayor of Suginami, 1999–2010)[145]
Declined
- Cabinet-level officials
- Yoshimasa Hayashi (Chief Cabinet Secretary, 2023–present; Minister for Foreign Affairs, 2021–2023; Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, 2017–2018; Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, 2012–2014; Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, 2009; Minister of Defense, 2008; Member of the House of Representatives, 2021–present; Member of the House of Councillors, 1995–2021)[149]
- Seiji Kihara (Former Special Advisor to the Prime Minister, 2023; Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, 2021–2023; Member of the House of Representatives, 2000–2009; 2012–present)[150]
Opinion polls
Hypothetical polling
The following polls feature Fumio Kishida, who was the speculated to run for re-election for the Liberal Democratic party leadership before deciding against entering the race.
| Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size[vague] | Shigeru Ishiba | Shinjirō Koizumi | Taro Kono | Sanae Takaichi | Yoshihide Suga | Yōko Kamikawa | Fumio Kishida | Seiko Noda | Toshimitsu Motegi | Others | NOT/
UD/NA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2024 | Fumio Kishida announces he will not seek re-election as President of the LDP. | ||||||||||||
| 3–4 Aug 2024 | JNN | 1,010 | 23.1 | 14.5 | 7.1 | 7 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 2[lower-alpha 2] | 26.6 |
| 26–28 Jul 2024 | Nikkei/TV Tokyo | 792 | 24 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4[lower-alpha 3] | 24 |
| 20–21 Jul 2024 | Sankei/FNN | 1,033 | 24.7 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.7[lower-alpha 4] | 30.4[lower-alpha 5] |
| 20–21 Jul 2024 | Kyodo News | 1,035 | 28.4 | 12.7 | 9 | 10.4 | – | 8.2 | 7.5 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.5[lower-alpha 6] | 17.7 |
| 20–21 Jul 2024 | SSRC | 2,044 | 17 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | – | – | 9[lower-alpha 7] | 33 |
| 19–21 Jul 2024 | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,031 | 25 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2[lower-alpha 8] | 25[lower-alpha 9] |
| 13–14 Jul 2024 | ANN | 1,012 | 27 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2[lower-alpha 10] | 24 |
| 6–7 Jul 2024 | JNN | 1,021 | 24 | 16.6 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 3.1[lower-alpha 11] | 25.5 |
| 22–23 Jun 2024 | SSRC | 2,043 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5 | – | – | 9[lower-alpha 12] | 35 |
| 22–23 Jun 2024 | Mainichi | 1,057 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 5 | – | 1 | – | 39 |
| 22–23 Jun 2024 | Kyodo News | 1,056 | 26.2 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 6.8 | – | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.8[lower-alpha 13] | 25.1 |
| 21–23 Jun 2024 | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,023 | 23 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3[lower-alpha 14] | 22[lower-alpha 15] |
| 15–16 Jun 2024 | Gunosy for Senkyo Dot Com | 1,000 | 13.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 6.7 | – | 3.3 | 3.2 | – | 0.4 | 6.6[lower-alpha 16] | 53.9 |
| 15–16 Jun 2024 | JX for Senkyo Dot Com | 984 | 23.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 8.5 | – | 8.6 | 7.8 | – | 0.9 | 10.4[lower-alpha 17] | 25.9 |
| 15–16 Jun 2024 | Sankei/FNN | 1,013 | 16.4 | 14.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2[lower-alpha 18] | 35.3[lower-alpha 19] |
| 15–16 Jun 2024 | ANN | 1,026 | 23 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 18–19 May 2024 | ANN | 1,045 | 23 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 17–19 May 2024 | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,033 | 22 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4[lower-alpha 20] | 21[lower-alpha 21] |
| 4–5 May 2024 | JNN | 1,013 | 24.2 | 14.1 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 7 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 10.5[lower-alpha 22] | 15.3 |
| 13–14 Apr 2024 | ANN | 1,037 | 21 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1[lower-alpha 23] | 24 |
| 22–24 Mar 2024 | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,020 | 22 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3[lower-alpha 24] | 23[lower-alpha 25] |
| 16–17 Mar 2024 | ANN | 1,031 | 22 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1[lower-alpha 26] | 21 |
| 16–17 Mar 2024 | SSRC | 2,044 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 3 | – | – | 8[lower-alpha 27] | 35 |
| 8–11 Mar 2024 | Jiji Press | 1,160 | 18.6 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.6[lower-alpha 28] | 40.4 |
| 9–10 Mar 2024 | Kyodo News | 1,043 | 22.2 | 15.4 | 7.9 | 8.3 | – | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 3.3[lower-alpha 29] | 24.5 |
| 24–25 Feb 2024 | ANN | 1,034 | 23 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1[lower-alpha 30] | 34 |
| 17–18 Feb 2024 | SSRC | 2,043 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 3 | – | – | 7[lower-alpha 31] | 33 |
| 17–18 Feb 2024 | Mainichi | 1,024 | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | – | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | – | 34 |
| 16–18 Feb 2024 | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,083 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2[lower-alpha 32] | 12 |
| 26–28 Jan 2024 | Nikkei/TV Tokyo | 969 | 22 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6[lower-alpha 33] | 17 |
| 8–11 Dec 2023 | Jiji Press | 2,000 | 15 | 16 | 8.8 | 5 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | – | – | 1 | 40.3 |
| 18–19 Nov 2023 | Asahi | 1,086 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 8 | – | – | 7 | – | 1 | 1[lower-alpha 34] | 36 |
| 11–12 Nov 2023 | Sankei Shimbun/FNN | N/A | 18.2 | 16 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.5 | – | – | 5.2 | 32.3 |
| 23–24 Sep 2023 | ANN | 1,018 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 7 | – | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3[lower-alpha 35] | 22 |
| 1–8 Jul 2023 | Asahi | 2,113 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 10 | – | 10 | 2 | – | 3[lower-alpha 36] | 27 |
| 3–4 Dec 2022 | JNN | 1,227 | 11 | – | 19 | 5 | 7 | – | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1[lower-alpha 37] | 39 |
| 19–20 Nov 2022 | SSRC for Mainichi | 3,069 | 5.9 | 4 | 14.7 | 4.7 | 4.4 | – | 15.8 | – | – | 6.4[lower-alpha 38] | 17 |
| 17–18 Sep 2022 | SSRC | 642 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 13.6 | 5.1 | 3.4 | – | 10.3 | – | – | 8[lower-alpha 39] | 20.9 |
Preferred outcome
| Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size | Kishida continues as PM | Election of new PM | Und. / no answer | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22–23 Jun 2024 | SSRC | 2,043 | 8 | 63 | 29 | 34 |
Notes
- Katsunobu Katō: 0.8%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 0.8%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.4%
- Yoshimasa Hayashi: 2%; Yūko Obuchi: 1%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 1%
- Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1.2%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.4%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 0.1%
- Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.7%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.7%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 0.7%; Another MP: 0.4%
- Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 1%
- Katsunobu Katō: 1%; Another MP: 1%
- Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1.5%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.8%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 0.8%
- Another MP: 1.9%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.9%
- Katsunobu Katō: 1%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 1%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
- Another MP: 6%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.6%
- Another MP: 8%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 2.4%
- Kenta Izumi (CDP): 1.7%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.4%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.3%
- Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 2%
- Another MP: 8.2%; Katsunobu Katō: 1.4%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.9%
- Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
- Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1.1%; Yūko Obuchi: 0.7%; Yasutoshi Nishimura: 0.4%; Kōichi Hagiuda: 0.3%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.1%
- Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.5%; Yasutoshi Nishimura: 0.3%; Another MP: 2.5%
- Yūko Obuchi: 2%
- Yoshimasa Hayashi: 3%; Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Another MP: 1%
- Yasutoshi Nishimura: 2%; Another MP: 1%
- Yasutoshi Nishimura: 2%; Another MP: 1%
- Tōru Hashimoto (NIK): 2.1%; Hirofumi Yoshimura (NIK): 1.9%; Taro Yamamoto (REI): 1.4%
- Tōru Hashimoto (NIK): 4.7%; Taro Yamamoto (REI): 3.3%
References
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